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SkyePharma |
Post Open Offer |
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This page takes SKP as effectively a new start from 2008.
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Sept 9th 100,000 buy today and 80,000 buy! |
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This page is written taking the company as a new investment from the time of the Open Offer Sept. 2008. The share capital has been restructured, with split shares cancelled before the consolidation, so there is little point going over past history by referring to shares at "almost Two Hundred Pounds each" by back converting without considering that. Indeed the Stock Market disclaimer over performance states just that! Past performance etc! The board has been criticised for past action, but renegotiating the bonds was successful and the Open Offer very timely indeed - and it was well received too! Also cash has been recovered over the Certihaler content failure. That may be too late to appear on the results and also had a major material effect on the last results which already were very positive - see below. Regrettably, unspecified new demands from the FDA have produced a major slide, which looks to be rather over done! |
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The shares soared under the Tech boom, but drifted back - (see this page dated 2003). Many investors from that period who did not "stop loss" out were 90% and more down. The recent offer (at1.5p OLD [10p] shares - now 150p [100p]) gave (IMHO) at least a chance to redeem some of those losses, (170 shares for every 100). In the days after trading in the new shares began (as the trading began to settle) they could have been bought for 130p. There have been opportunities to "trade" the shares at profit since then. Stop losses should have triggered in June, though the drop was totally unexpected as a result of another possible new FDA request! |
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Previous analysis prior to the June slide appears here - for reference. |
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SKYEPHARMA PLC - Settlement of Formoterol Certihaler™ Termination LONDON, UK, 17 July 2009 - SkyePharma PLC (LSE: SKP) today announces that it has reached agreement with Novartis Pharma AG ("Novartis") and with a subcontractor on immediate termination of the contracts relating to formoterol Certihaler™. The agreements follow the decision not to proceed with US commercialisation of formoterol Certihaler™ as announced in December 2008. The net effect of the termination agreements will result in an exceptional gain to SkyePharma in the 2009 accounts of approximately £5 million leading to a net cash benefit in the second half of 2009 of a similar amount. The cessation of production resulted in a £5.9 million exceptional charge in the Group's 2008 accounts mainly relating to asset write-downs. Following the termination, SkyePharma retains exclusive rights for the SkyeHaler™ device, used in the formoterol Certihaler™, which was approved in the United States in December 2006 for use as a multi-dose dry powder inhaler. As previously announced, discussions on commercialising formoterol Certihaler™ with a third party ceased following recommendations by the Joint Advisory Committees of the US Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") that the benefits of long-acting beta2-agonists administered alone did not outweigh the risks in current asthma indications. SkyePharma is seeking other potential applications for its proprietary SkyeHaler™ dry powder inhaler. SkyeHaler™ is a multi-dose reservoir device suitable for acute and chronic therapies with a dose counter and an end of life lock out mechanism. Dr Ken Cunningham, Chief Executive, said: "It was disappointing that formoterol Certihaler™ could not be commercialised, but we are pleased to have reached a settlement which includes a substantial cash receipt as well as enabling us to seek alternative uses for the SkyeHaler™ device, which remains one of very few dry powder inhaler devices which have been incorporated in an approved product in the United States." |
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At iii it has now been admitted that the inhaler could not be
offered for other uses until this agreement, as I had already stated!
It appears to me that the cash element is in compensation for this.
The original cessation of production impacted on the results for that
half (2008) and the cash element announced above will be a post
balance sheet item this time (August 21st). (I confirmed this with
the company today) Mr Smith has not removed the |
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There was also a mention of "distressed bondholders". Are these the same people converting those bonds at £3.17 a go? The total amount of the £69.6m 6% 2024 Convertible Bonds now converted amounts to £6,587,000 saving £395,220 interest per annum. They do not appear to be selling the shares! |
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This is the type of response the news above gets from a
contributor at iii! (spelling as original) |
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Patrick, |
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How is it a failure, to recover that amount of cash, when it was the content of the inhaler, not the inhaler itself which caused the original cancellation. Something which could NOT be anticipated! The way director remuneration is calculated can be seen on the website. It is not unusual! |
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Re The Red marks on iii board. Sent to iii today July 22nd. |
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On the Skyepharma board one other poster, under the name
KarlSmithKarlSmith has not posted a word for 12 months, but red
triangles all my posts on there, without exception, even when they
are clearly replies to other posters and titled as such. |
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June 9th.2009.
It seems the FDA may want yet more information - Cancelled out
all the 2009 price rise in 2 days! Why they cannot get their
requirements right first time is puzzling! They have now done this TWICE! |
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July 28th. Chart below shows breach of 20 day moving average and two Gaps up! |
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RNS Number : 6153T Skyepharma PLC 09 June 2009 SKYEPHARMA PLC - Flutiform* U.S. Filing Update LONDON, UK, 9 June 2009 - SkyePharma PLC (LSE: SKP) today announces that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued a communication in respect of the New Drug Application (NDA) for its lead development product, Flutiform* (fluticasone propionate/formoterol fumarate), an investigational treatment for persistent asthma in patients 12 years of age and older. The communication, known as a 74-day letter, confirms, as previously announced, that the NDA is sufficiently complete to permit a substantive review and, in line with standard review practice, the FDA has given preliminary notice of some potential review issues. The FDA states that its filing review is only a preliminary evaluation of the application and is not indicative of deficiencies that may be identified during its review and that issues may be added, deleted, expanded upon, or modified as it reviews the application. Further clarification is required of some of these potential review issues and steps are being taken to seek discussions with the FDA with a view to agreeing how they may be addressed. Although the requirements cannot be precisely assessed prior to discussion with the FDA, based on a preliminary assessment, it appears likely that some additional clinical work may be required to provide more data on dosing. As previously announced, the regulatory review timeline for asthma treatments is typically longer than the standard 10-month Prescription Drug User Fee Act timeline. Should additional clinical work be required this is likely to impact on the timeline for the review and any potential approval. The potential review issues are not expected to have an impact upon the development of Flutiform* for Europe or Japan. |
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Chart above for Sept 2nd. Day after the delay in Flutiform announced - not quite at the day close. Note the trend channel. Hopefully this will hold - The drop on the 2nd was mostly in the last hr of trades. Note also the top trend line prior to the initial RNS. |
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To Karl Smith. |
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The chart below is the Sept 2nd chart one month on. Note that iii TA had also suggested a trend channel within the larger one I drew - also that the upward move in that channel did not reach the upper line of mine. That could suggest the next upward move may also fail to reach that line (The target being above 100p) |
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Chart below compares Lupus Capital, (where I had a long debate re its "dog" status (Lupus Canis)) with Skye. It shows the effect of a major factor beyond company control and the recovery from it which was predictable. Skye is currently roughly where Lupus was in April. |
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June 21st. I'm expecting a gradual recovery in the share price and possibly some buying by the management to back that up. (closed period at present though.). There is also a possibility that a bidder may emerge. Note also, that excepting the single day downspike in October, we now have a double bottom on the chart. I suppose KarlSmithKarlSmith is still going to vote me down on the iii board but not post anything, so I've stated this here, not there. "Buy" at about 130p, with a trailing stop loss 5p below that. (that would have been activated by the further slide) June 23rd marked down again on ZERO volume and again on 24th (2 trades) There is now a clear double bottom (chart above) and a bounce (sustained) is due. Possible Buy at 112 approx. Up to July 15th the price had tracked up with rising lows with a major broker to broker trade on July 17th (chart below). Closing mid was 114.0. (114.5 Friday 17th). Monday 20th. showed another slide, but 20 trades of 1000 shares each at 109.5p and only 4 sells makes me suspect the turn is here. |
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The Selling above has treated the stock as if the RNS stated "Flutiform is a write off". That is clearly not the case! A counter reaction approaching the indicated trend line is not impossible! |
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This (below) is the chart from the company flotation - Share prices crudely converted - no account of the number of shares in issue at the time. In my opinion it is misleading! There are currently 23,943,162 shares in issue - a market cap of almost £28M . At £190.00 that would give a market cap of over $4 Billion! |
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For buyers at the top who failed to get out on the drop, there was a stop loss at about £105.00 (the failed second peak) Then possibly at £80.00 and between £60.00 amd £40.00 as the chart recovery faltered. A more recent chart is needed to carry this forward. |
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This was one of my posts at iii. July 5th. - un edited. Well if you had bought on the top of that spike would you still hold? Look at the graph (don't think I can add it to this reply). I WAS holding stock prior to that peak and did NOT buy on it! Do you realistically consider that the "consolidated" shares can reach £199,00? That is impossible under any management - unless you think Flutiform is worth a market cap of £4Billion!(£199.00 * number of shares in issue). Perhaps around £3.00 Share price when Flutiform goes on the market. I did not use leverage to average down. They are fully paid for. What I might have done, (had Barclays used the system) was take out a traditional "call" option to buy at the current price, (114p) with a 3 month life. I'm not sure if those are still available these days, but I did use them years ago. The price to pay was about 10% of the share value - so it had to rise more than that to make the option profitable. If it did go to profit you would exercise the option and sell the stock - otherwise write off the 10% as a loss by not exercising the option. So if the option cost 20pps the shares would need to be above 135p to make a profit. At present (July24th) the option is in loss. A start price at par (100p, costing about 15pps) was possible yesterday. |
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Note that many sites are quoting price change as on the last trade. This tends to produce extremes when the spread is wide, and it can be 10% in this stock! It is often possible to trade closer to the mid price. If, for instance the share closes at "bid" and opens at "offer" the change displayed actually reflects the spread! The mid price is often the same! |
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July 6th - 12500 Buys -5045 Sells - Close price 113.5 (last deal, not the mid!) |
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July 7th - Initial markup very likely! No trades on main market. Mostly buys on Plus 115.5 |
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July 8th - More trading today buys up to 120.5 Buys 35518 Sells 71825 (not inc Plus) |
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July 9th - Lower volume wide intra day range. |
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July 16th - Big broker to broker trade! (see annotation on second to last chart). 2 sells 1 buy (last) last deal 114.5. |
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July 20th - 20 late buys of 1000 at 109.5p! Best buy at 108p (2500). Last trade a sell at 105 sets "close" price (105/110) Mid price then 107.5! 4 sells in all! (ADVFN data). News re HMBioventures holding. |
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July 21st - Suggest there will be a rally. |
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July 22nd - first trade a sell. Spread still wide at near 10%. It has been notable this week that when the buy price drops and the spread narrows, buyers emerge. This indeed did happen today. Whether this will keep the stock above par value remains to be seen. The sell fell to 98p but the buy remained just above par (my buy limit price). This may be the nadir of the chart - except for a possible 96p September last which does not show up on all charts for some reason! |
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July 23rd. "Something4me" suggested selling - as the company has "shafted" investors again. (FDA actually) We shall see. Place your bets! There has again been considerably more trading on Plus than LSE and my limit order activated. 96p was touched and seemingly bounced off, creating a "hammer" apparently. AR on iii has noted that, and states that all indicators are turning up! Closed at all time low mid price of 98.75, which was my last buy price! |
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July 24th. If AR is right there should be some positive movement.
Indeed there was, after a weak morning. My buy yesterday cut my paper
loss by 1% and it is now showing better than break even (before
costs). As for Mr Smith? |
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July 27th. A strong start today on Plus led to a 5%+ gain on the day on the LSE. Volumes were not particularly high though.Remains to be seen if the iii poster and I who bought have made a good call |
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July 28th. More trades again on Plus, despite the much wider spread there (109-123). Volumes were stronger though over 60000 in total. Gain 5.5% today - Profit taking would seem to be the next move. |
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July 29th. A third opening "Gap up" in 3 days, with a new high for this run, Volume up as well, with spread under 1p at times! A gain of 4.3% at the close |
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July 30th. Possible RNS today - on the back of AstraZeneca report. Might also explain some of the rise. No RNS - think I'm wrong re AZ connection in any case. Hardly any trading on either market today and a widening closing spread. Last Auction trade dropped the price - Gap down this time! Closed on the 20 day moving average! |
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July 31st. Spread 110 - 119 at open (113.5 trade). little volume. Shares remained unchanged. |
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Aug 3rd. Slow start (wide spread) more larer as spread narrowed. Gain on the day. More +ve Tech on iii. |
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Aug 28th. The share price has passed above the 50 day sma and both
are trending up. |
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The trends mentioed above did not hold. |
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I have actually
managed to find that in 2001 (the time of the spike or just after it)
there were apparently 2,782,491,944 10p shares in issue. At the price
on the date I looked at, (80p) the Cap would have been £2,225,993,555.32! |
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Comment on
Skyepharma price changes. As reported on some websites the
"changes" are very misleading, especially if the spread is
wide. The sites are quoting change on last trade, not the mid price.
A close at "bid" and an open at "offer" shows the
spread range, not the mid price change! |
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A substantial number of bonds have been converted to shares this year at well above the current price. (371p I think). This must suggest confidence. The data will be in the annual report - Summary here now. LONDON, UK, 22 June 2009 -- SkyePharma PLC (LSE: SKP) today announces that it has received notification in respect of £2,500,000 of the 6% 2024 Convertible Bonds ("Bonds") to convert them into ordinary shares of £1.00 each ("Ordinary Shares"). In accordance with the terms of the Bonds, the conversion will take place at the exchange price of £3.71 per share and, following completion of the exchange process, will result in the issue of an additional 673,854 Ordinary Shares. The reduction in debt will reduce finance costs by £150,000 per annum and strengthen the Group's balance sheet. Application will be made to the UK Listing Authority and to the London Stock Exchange for the additional Ordinary Shares to be admitted to the Official List. The additional Ordinary Shares will rank pari passu in all respects with the existing Ordinary Shares and when issued and allotted the total issued share capital of the Company will be 23,943,162 Ordinary Shares. The total amount of the £69.6m 6% 2024 Convertible Bonds now converted amounts to £6,587,000 saving £395,220 interest per annum. For further information please contact: SkyePharma PLC Ken Cunningham +44 20 7491 1777 Peter Grant
Karl Smith? Yes you guessed it! |
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RNS Number :
2122L Skyepharma PLC 07 January 2009 |
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LONDON, UK, 7 January 2009 -- SkyePharma PLC (LSE: SKP) today announces that its partner Nitec has received the Final Assessment Report from the German BfArM (Bundesinstitut f?neimittel und Medizinprodukte), concluding that Lodotra* is approvable for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and associated morning stiffness, in 15 European countries, including Germany as the Reference Member State, under the EMEA's Decentralised Procedure. Marketing Authorisations are granted following this procedure on a country by country basis. The first national launch of Lodotra is expected to take place in H1 2009 in Germany by Merck KGaA, Nitec's partner for that region. SkyePharma will receive a mid single digit percentage royalty on net sales and is manufacturing the product at its plant in Lyon, France. |
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RNS Number : 3139E Skyepharma PLC 25 September 2008 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE |
The Open Offer closed at 11.00 am on 24 September 2008. Valid applications have been received from Qualifying Shareholders in respect of 8,908,783 Consolidated New Ordinary Shares (representing approximately 63.55 per cent. of the 14,017,807 Consolidated New Ordinary Shares available under the Placing and Open Offer). The balance of 5,109,024 Consolidated New Ordinary Shares has been conditionally allotted to Placees. No Convertible Non-Voting Shares were required to be issued. |
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Cash and cashflow. The half yearly spend is a little over £10m, on a falling trend. Oct 27 2008. RNS gave good news on income etc as forecast in the interim report. |
The company appears to have funding of about £40m in place, including the cash from the placing and open offer (£18.4M). This should be set against falling R&D costs and rising revenues (interim RNS) It would appear to have been very fortunate in the timing! As to whether the downturn will affect income rates, well some products might actually sell more as a result! Glaxo also reports sales of Requip doubled in the 3 months to 30 Sept over the previous 6 months, reinforcing what SKP stated in the interims. Further progress to Dec 31! Paxil CR is also up! |
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Stated reasons for the open offer in the proforma. |
Funds raised by the Placing and Open Offer will be used to provide working capital to enhance the core oral and inhalation business and in particular to protect shareholders' interests in Flutiform* and other pipeline products, to enable the Group to become profitable and deliver long-term value for Shareholders, and to meet the expenses of the Bond Proposals and of the Placing and Open Offer. |
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The offer was struck, (as are ALL such offers) at a discount to the then current share price. As there are now more shares in issue, the price remained below the converted price at the offer date. This is also a normal reaction. All directors either took up their allocation pro rata or bought in the market. For most of 2009 the price has risen until the possible FDA requirement announcement. |
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The following are from the last interim statement. |
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As at 30 June 2008 SkyePharma had cash and cash equivalents, net of overdrafts, of £21.3 million (31 December 2007: £31.7 million) and total liquidity (cash and cash equivalents plus undrawn facilities) of £22.8 million (31 December 2007: £33.1 million). The decrease in cash and cash equivalents is primarily due to the expenditure on the continued development of Flutiform™. |
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The pre-exceptional operating loss of £2.2 million was 75 per cent. lower than the operating loss for the Continuing Operations recorded in the first half of 2007. The loss was after charging £10.6 million (2007: £13.8 million) on research and development, mainly on the continuing development of Flutiform™. After net finance costs, the Group incurred a loss before tax and exceptional items of £4.0 million (2007: £14.1 million). |
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All of the above ( middle panel) indicated better prospects for
the company as progress was indicated in the interim document in
trading in products other than Paxil CR where generic competition had
reduced revenues as expected. Whether in current trading conditions
this trend is ongoing remains to be seen - hence my opinion that the
Open Offer was very well timed! Karl Smith? Well obviously! |
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The iii
discussion board for SKP. is a waste of time again. Karl Smith |
Since a number of posters there are behaving in a very childish manner and not allowing any serious discussion I almost abandoned the Skye board. Why any non holder votes down every factual post I make there is beyond a joke. Even the reply from the company was voted down. One person was even voting me down "to wind you up". I voted ONE of his posts down as he suggested the Open Offer was to "fund Director lifestyles" That is libellous! |
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I bought at about 3.90 just before the offer, took it up and bought more. The total was currently (16th. Feb) a paper loss of 11.3%. |
It has been argued that holders should have sold at the time the Open offer was announced, whilst retaining the rights to claim the offer. This would have realised about 3.7p per share approx. They would have been able to take up 170 for every 100 at the offer price and possibly more at or about 150 in the market. (I got more at 135). IF, however the original shares had been bought at 20p for example (= to 2000p at the new price) that would have meant taking a loss of 1630p as an absolute loss. In some cases that loss might have been useful, though how many today have gains to offset against it? |
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My rating at iii. |
A poster there
has said I have a negative rating on that site. That is not
surprising when 1 non poster votes down every post I make. He has not
posted a word since October 2008! Just |
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Share buyback suggestion from a poster at iii. A non starter IMHO. |
It has been suggested that the company buys back shares (After just offering them at 150p). This currently would cost over 150p per share. It was also suggested that the shares could be sold at a higher price in the future. That could mean an offer to all shareholders! That would cost money to do, and in the meantime would reduce the cash available to the company! |
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June 11th. 35% holding! |
RNS June 11th that a firm has CFDs amounting to 35% of the voting rights in the convertibles. This is not the same as a bid situation, but is nontheless interesting! |
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To KarlSmithKarlSmith, |
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See Here for previous possible trading suggestions.
June 10th Major
fall (on high volume) suggested a buy opportunity
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Comparator group Re Director remuneration etc |
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Abcam PLC |
Acambis Plc* |
Alizyme Plc |
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Antisoma Plc |
Axis-Shield Plc |
BBI Holdings PLC* |
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BTG PLC |
Dechra Pharmaceuticals Plc |
Genus Plc |
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Goldshield Group Plc |
GWPharmaceuticals PLC |
Oxford Biomedica Plc |
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Premier Research Group PLC* |
ProStrakan Group plc |
Protherics Plc* |
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Silence Therapeutics PLC |
Vectura Group PLC |
Vernalis PLC |
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* These companies were acquired during the year. |
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Regarding a comment re the non-merger with Innovata.13-Jan-2006 |
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The boards of Vectura and Innovata are pleased to announce that, at a Court Hearing held earlier today, the Court sanctioned the Scheme of Arrangement and confirmed the related Reduction of Capital comprised within the Scheme. The Scheme is expected to become effective and the Acquisition of Innovata completed on registration of the Reduction of Capital by the Registrar of Companies and delivery to him of an office copy of the Court Order. This is now expected to take place on 17 January 2007. Dealings in the New Vectura Shares issued to Innovata Shareholders pursuant to the Scheme are therefore expected to commence at 8:00 a.m. on 18 January 2007. 17 January 2007 will be the last day of dealings in Innovata Shares and it is expected that the Innovata Shares will be delisted at 8:00 a.m. on 18 January 2007. |
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Entered for consultation by those who think SKP are overpaying directors (Annual report 2008.) |
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Page created 30th. October 2008 Edited . October 9th. 2009 |
s on my correct posts on the matter and has STILL not posted!
