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SkyePharma |
Post Open Offer |
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This page now has other info from other sources.
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This page is written taking the company as a new investment from the time of the Open Offer Sept. 2008. The share capital has been restructured, with split shares cancelled before the consolidation, so there is little point going over past history by referring to shares at "almost Two Hundred Pounds each" by back converting without considering that. Indeed the Stock Market disclaimer over performance states just that! Past performance etc! The board has been criticised for past action, but renegotiating the bonds was successful and the Open Offer very timely indeed - and it was well received too! |
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The shares soared under the Tech boom, but drifted back - (see this page dated 2003). Many investors from that period who did not "stop loss" out were 90% and more down. The recent offer (at1.5p OLD [10p] shares - now 150p [100p]) gave (IMHO) at least a chance to redeem some of those losses, (170 shares for every 100). In the days after trading in the new shares began (as the trading began to settle) they could have been bought for 130p |
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Recent View - Rated
a Buy. Limit at 160-165 up 34p since first rec. Had steadied
at that level (135p). Jan 5th. Jan 14th possible stop
loss out at 166p (if in at 135p). |
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Bond conversions. Just prior to the results (26 March) there have been two instances of bond conversions - substantially above the current share price. This suggests views of an impending major price rise, possibly above the high for the consolidated shares. I could be wrong on this, but so could Karl Smith! Well the price is UP considerably! 182p! Wide spread again! |
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Comment on Skyepharma price changes. As reported on some websites the "changes" are very misleading, especially if the spread is wide. The sites are quoting change on last trade, not the mid price. A close at "bid" and an open at "offer" shows the spread range, not the mid price change! |
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Jan 21st -
Pharma sector as a whole was weak today - SKP
trading mixed. |
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New chart below for Feb 26th.is similar to Feb 11th. The breakout shown could indicate a rally, target 200p poss. However if volumes don't rise this could be a false signal. Spread is narrower though, which is a good sign. Volume remained low until Feb 26th. The price rose to 165p! |
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Three positive events were recorded on the 29th at iii, all at mid price 155p. Three more on Jan 30th as well! Possible target high of 180p, but higher volumes are needed! The Glaxo data today (5th Feb) also suggest company income is not falling away even now. |
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Chart for March
3rd. Target 233 - 247 |
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Interesting comments from one of those questioning the four bankers! "If a black hole opened and swallowed up all the derivatives, short traders etc and the risk takers / bonus earners things would be better!" I have criticised such "trading" on the SKP board at iii as being too damaging in the current climate. Comments elsewhere suggest the "shorters" had an inkling of what was coming at the market peak. It is also possible that some selling (in volume) could precipitate more selling, hence creating a feedback. Market manipulation in effect with borrowed shares! At least the Obama plan is almost through in the USA! |
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RNS Number :
2122L Skyepharma PLC 07 January 2009 |
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LONDON, UK, 7 January 2009 -- SkyePharma PLC (LSE: SKP) today announces that its partner Nitec has received the Final Assessment Report from the German BfArM (Bundesinstitut f?neimittel und Medizinprodukte), concluding that Lodotra* is approvable for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and associated morning stiffness, in 15 European countries, including Germany as the Reference Member State, under the EMEA's Decentralised Procedure. Marketing Authorisations are granted following this procedure on a country by country basis. The first national launch of Lodotra is expected to take place in H1 2009 in Germany by Merck KGaA, Nitec's partner for that region. SkyePharma will receive a mid single digit percentage royalty on net sales and is manufacturing the product at its plant in Lyon, France. |
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The charts etc. below show the reasons for my trading in the stock. All are from Recognia, linked from iii |
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Nov 17th - a second tip from tech analysis, (which did not materialise). The first had been around Oct 13th. The price since then has moved sideways, but at October 13th. levels. Compare with current info at iii.co.uk |
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Nov 21 |
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RNS Number : 3139E Skyepharma PLC 25 September 2008 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE |
The Open Offer closed at 11.00 am on 24 September 2008. Valid applications have been received from Qualifying Shareholders in respect of 8,908,783 Consolidated New Ordinary Shares (representing approximately 63.55 per cent. of the 14,017,807 Consolidated New Ordinary Shares available under the Placing and Open Offer). The balance of 5,109,024 Consolidated New Ordinary Shares has been conditionally allotted to Placees. No Convertible Non-Voting Shares were required to be issued. |
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October 6/7 (post the consolidation) |
The share price was quite resilient at the time, though the spread was sometimes very wide! The changes on these two days in mid price have been determined by the spread! |
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Cash and cashflow. The half yearly spend is a little over £10m, on a falling trend. Oct 27. RNS gave good news on income etc as forecast in the interim report. |
The company appears to have funding of about £40m in place, including the cash from the placing and open offer (£18.4M). This should be set against falling R&D costs and rising revenues (interim RNS) It would appear to have been very fortunate in the timing! As to whether the downturn will affect income rates, well some products might actually sell more as a result! Oct 14th. Signal that price was about to rally or sidetrack. It did so! Oct 21st - a major move on higher volume - touched 178p! High for shares post consolidation. Now 202-204 - new post consolidation high 207 (Intra Day). Glaxo also reports sales of Requip doubled in the 3 months to 30 Sept over the previous 6 months, reinforcing what SKP stated in the interims. Further progress to Dec 31! Paxil CR is also up! |
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Stated reasons for the open offer in the proforma. |
Funds raised by the Placing and Open Offer will be used to provide working capital to enhance the core oral and inhalation business and in particular to protect shareholders' interests in Flutiform* and other pipeline products, to enable the Group to become profitable and deliver long-term value for Shareholders, and to meet the expenses of the Bond Proposals and of the Placing and Open Offer. |
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Oct 29th. The share price seems to have broken out above the long trend line shown. This may not hold, but would seem a good sign. The close was above 200 but there were two late trades at 197. Charts from iii website. The RSI was very overbought! |
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Nov 22nd. |
Currently the effect of the overbought RSI has been eliminated as the stock has fallen below the line indicated above. It is now showing as oversold (Nov 22nd) |
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Recent activity up to Oct 28th. Shows my trade and the time of the analysis hint to buy. The crossing rising moving averages is, I think a strong positive, unless I am in error re the "golden cross" interpretation. The shares traded above £2.00 for a time after that. There has been another such buy window at that price. |
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The offer was struck, (as are ALL such offers) at a discount to the then current share price. As there are now more shares in issue, the price to date remains below the converted price at the offer date. This is also a normal reaction. All directors either took up their allocation pro rata or bought in the market. |
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The following are from the recent interim statement. |
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As at 30 June 2008 SkyePharma had cash and cash equivalents, net of overdrafts, of £21.3 million (31 December 2007: £31.7 million) and total liquidity (cash and cash equivalents plus undrawn facilities) of £22.8 million (31 December 2007: £33.1 million). The decrease in cash and cash equivalents is primarily due to the expenditure on the continued development of Flutiform™. |
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The pre-exceptional operating loss of £2.2 million was 75 per cent. lower than the operating loss for the Continuing Operations recorded in the first half of 2007. The loss was after charging £10.6 million (2007: £13.8 million) on research and development, mainly on the continuing development of Flutiform™. After net finance costs, the Group incurred a loss before tax and exceptional items of £4.0 million (2007: £14.1 million). |
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All of the above ( middle panel) indicated better prospects for the company as progress was indicated in the interim document in trading in products other than Paxil CR where generic competition had reduced revenues as expected. Whether in current trading conditions this trend is ongoing remains to be seen - hence my opinion that the Open Offer was very well timed! |
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S4M |
From a discussion forum elsewhere. |
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* There was no guarantee that price would be possible. |
"I do recall advising original investors to Sell when the Call was made and to buy *when the price reached 150p (1.5p) or lower. Had they done so their overall losses would have been a lot lower than they currently are". |
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It has been possible to buy at as low as 130p. As I indicated on the chart above. |
Technically it was possible to sell at around 5p after the record date. This would have retained the ability to take up the Open Offer and cover the cost of it and more. However IF the investor was nursing a large loss at the time, as many evidently were, the resulting crystallised loss would be substantial (but deductable). Whether on balance the resulting new share gain would make "overall losses a lot lower" depends on individual circumstances. In my case I was in profit at the time of that posting. |
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The iii
discussion board for SKP. is a waste of time again. Karl Smith |
Since a number of posters there are behaving in a very childish manner and not allowing any serious discussion I almost abandoned the Skye board. Why any non holder votes down every factual post I make there is beyond a joke. Even the reply from the company I posted today was voted down. One person was even voting me down "to wind you up". I voted ONE of his posts down as he suggested the Open Offer was to "fund Director lifestyles" |
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I bought at about 3.90 just before the offer, took it up and bought more. The total was currently (16th. Feb) a paper loss of 11.3%. |
It has been argued that holders should have sold at the time the Open offer was announced, whilst retaining the rights to claim the offer. This would have realised about 3.7p per share approx. They would have been able to take up 170 for every 100 at the offer price and possibly more at or about 150 in the market. (I got more at 135). IF, however the original shares had been bought at 20p for example (= to 2000p at the new price) that would have meant taking a loss of 1630p as an absolute loss. In some cases that loss might have been useful, though how many today have gains to offset against it? |
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My rating at iii. |
A poster there
has said I have a negative rating on that site. That is not
surprising when 1 non poster votes down every post I make. He has not
posted a word since October 2008! Just |
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Share buyback suggestion from a poster at iii. A non starter IMHO. |
It has been suggested that the company buys back shares (After just offering them at 150p). This currently would cost over 150p per share. It was also suggested that the shares could be sold at a higher price in the future. That could mean an offer to all shareholders! That would cost money to do, and in the meantime would reduce the cash available to the company! |
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June 11th. 35% holding! |
RNS June 11th that a firm has CFDs amounting to 35% of the voting rights in the convertibles. This is not the same as a bid situation, but is nontheless interesting! |
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To KarlSmithKarlSmith, |
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Jan 14th. After possible buy at 135p possible stop loss out at 166p. (from 170p+)
NB
Currently (Feb 16th) after sales data from Glaxo, SKP rates a buy (at
approx 156p) Price now is 181p. Volumes are not high though on
some days and the spread can be wide, as today. Volume well up on the
26th with a 2p spread! (Finals declared) Spread 9p! Current Stop
loss - 175p (30th) June 10th Major fall (on high volume) suggests a buy opportunity close to the open offer level. Doubled holding at that level. |
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Page created 30th. October 2008 Edited . July 18th. 2009 |
Jan 23rd. sells when spread wide, buys as it narrowed. Suggest buying
(then) at about 147p. Now (Feb 10) 149.0p! N/C (Spread is 143 - 155!)
The spread is giving rise to false "change" readings at iii.
