archive

For reference after the event!

Some comments will be on file here for reference. As to how long that will be depends on their currency. The first table is mainly responses to questions, the second my comments on the markets.

I am prepared to post any useful data here on market activity etc. Use the Hemscott e. mail links.

Similar archives are on site for several companies, some without an active page of their own.

This top section is answers to some fellow investor questions

The "Single Protected Trade" These are often open to misunderstanding. Look for out of sequence time stamps.

This type of trade is often well above the NMS (Normal Market Size) and can cause worry since it is often reported late.

I contacted Charles Schwab and have had this reply.

"A single protected transaction is a very large trade (usually above normal market size) that takes the Market Makers a little time to fill. This is why it usually appears at the close of trading, but was actually made earlier in the days trading when the price was lower."

Clearly the element of "protection" is that the price is fixed when the Market Makers start to fill the deal, not when it is actually completed. This explains any discrepancy price wise with other deals "reported" at that time. See also below.

These "protected" trades are almost always bigger than NMS. The price is therefore liable to be outside the "spread" at the time the trade is initiated. The market makers are liable to adjust the price they offer to compensating NMS trades to, in effect compensate for this larger deal. In effect, market manipulation, albeit only for that trading session, since books have to be balanced if at all possible from their point of view. A case in point was discussed in Sunday Express, April 15th. I quote it in part below. It shows how a protected "sell" worked in practice.

Photobition Thursday

Adam Alexander "Day Trader" see p 6 in the financial supplement.

Towards the end of the day I buy more Photobition after prices ease- There are nothing but buyers. Reams of them on the left hand column of my screen- Yet strangely the price isn't moving up one jot. In fact, contrary to the laws of supply and demand, it's creeping down. Only when markets close do I see why. One trade of 1,500,000 shares moves through my screen - a sell, instantly wiping out the hundreds of buyers during the day.

Wide Spreads? re NMS

NMS is Normal Market Size. This can be varied according to conditions in the market.

Above NMS? These trades often occur at prices outside the normal spread. Market makers are ONLY liable to hold the quoted price on the market at the NMS level or below.

Many posters have commented on this matter. You can set a limit to your "bargain" (trade) within the spread range to run for that session only. There is no extra cost and it is often a success.

Partial Flotations

A comment elsewhere about a company floating 20% of its equity. This has a tendency to produce a stagnant shareprice at times, as in the case of Property Trust, with wider spreads than is normal in proportion to the share price. When moves do occur they can be extreme. The flotation does help to raise cash, but I suspect the stock can be handicapped. There is, however the option to release more stock later I think by a placing.

Share placings, Rights Issues and Open Offers. What is the difference?

Placings, Rights Issues and Open Offers.
Placings. In this case the small shareholder is usually frozen out, though there could be a possibility of getting shares. (see webshareshop)
Rights issues allocate shares to you pro rata according to your current holding. They are usually discounted.
Open Offer Institutions should have no advantage over the ordinary shareholder. This allows you to name your figure of new shares and then may be subject to scaling down should the offer be over subscribed. In the latter case the institutional share has been known to be reduced!

This section is mainly the Market comments made at the times stated

Thursday Mar. 22nd. 2001 at 23.00.

Revision Mar. 23rd. 0800

This is the time when a bounce could begin. Prices have been driven well down by slowdown worries, but bear in mind that the "Dow" index is 30 shares only, so is prone to shifts by one constituent. The FTSE has followed the US yet again. I note that Hemscott Analyst is very negative on Nasdaq and US markets in general. As to whether the "Sell in May" concept will apply this year, that would really put the icing on the cake! The zero rate in Tokyo may be the catalyst to revive the economy there. The Nikkei had a very good day Wednesday. The slide there on Thursday was about 33% of the gain and the Dow has bounced some 250 points off the days low point. The S & P composite at 1117.58 is off a mere 4.56 points and Nasdaq is UP 67.57. The Nikkei has retraced the loss it made on Thursday.

Date as above

US slowdown worries are the major factors, but rates could be cut this week by at least 0.25%. That was my comment on the 19th. It seems that 0.5% is seen as too little!

Sunday Mar. 25th. 2001 at 16.00.

I note that Hemscott Analyst is very negative on Nasdaq and US markets in general. As to whether the "Sell in May" concept will apply this year, that would really put the icing on the cake! Trading on Friday in the UK was at lower volumes and there was some late price drift lower. Minor stocks showed no sign of revival. The negative factors are still in place, with Foot & Mouth a very significant factor in the UK for several market sectors. The BT sale could boost that stock. If the Pacific Rim markets can hold onto the rise made on Friday, I suspect the UK will follow, at least until the pre market data emerges from the US. There has been a major failure in Japan though which will weigh heavily on the Nikkei.

Pacific Media entry

Currently (Feb 19th.) the shares are rising on high volume. The last shares in TVM have now been cleared, so there is soon to be no overhang.
Pacific Media Plc, the Asian focused integrated media and e-commerce group which has been traded on AIM since October 1995, is now a fully Listed company. Not sure that they are in the correct UK category though!
Pacific Media now owns 36% of the Chinese Channel and the remaining 64% is owned by Television Broadcasts Limited, the world's largest producer of Chinese language programming.
Company investments are now listed in a sub-page.All have site links. Would someone please tell the Daily Mail that PCM is NOT just a cinema company!!! Are you out there Geoff Foster?

Monday Mar. 26th. 2001 at 23.00. Updated Tuesday at 08.00

I note the Pacific Rim markets held onto the rise made on Friday and moved solidly ahead. The UK followed, and consolidated as the pre market data emerged from the US. The failure in Japan had little effect. The Dow has closed 182.75 to the good. UK share volume was a little lower than on Friday. Smaller stocks have also begun to move ahead today. Blacks Leisure may be about to go private. Watch the telco stocks for further rises, followed by profit taking as the week goes on. Singapore could be strong overnight.

Profit-taking in Pacific rim markets followed the reversal in the Nasdaq of 10.19 points. UK profit warnings related to foot and mouth begin with Old English Pubs today.

Tuesday Mar. 27th. 2001 at 23.00.

Profit-taking in Pacific rim markets followed the reversal in the Nasdaq of 10.19 points. The UK followed the Dow after a hesitant start, and consolidated as the pre market data emerged from the US, to close at the best levels of the day on higher volume . US consumer confidence data showed a rise. Smaller stocks have also begun to move ahead today. Blacks Leisure may be about to go private. Watch the telco stocks for further rises, followed by profit taking as the week goes on. Mixed jobs news today in the UK as hi techs and steel lose but curry gains!

Thursday?

As suggested earlier (see archive page) we have had a bout of profit taking, exaggerated by the profit warnings from Nortel and several Foot an mouth related ones in the UK. Barratt posted 25% gains, which may be paralleled in the other housebuilders. Disney job losses are not good news, since it covers Europe and the States. I see G W has made some moves too. That may counter the other gloom. Yet again the Middle East is a factor, with the spiral of death STILL unbroken. Both Dow and Nasdaq appear to have closed off worst levels. Check the Nasdaq site for both after hours and Pre market trading. There is also an excellent new facility on the site. Click the link.

Friday

As suggested earlier (see archive page) we had a bout of profit taking, The Dow closed up a fraction and Nasdaq has closed just off worst levels. The Pacific rim markets have been much steadier, suggesting a firmer day ahead in London. The Maxwell report could cause some reaction though.

Monday 2nd.

The US markets were ahead, but collapsed big time! American Express clearly was the main factor. Why Nasdaq is so neurotic since it covers a wide range of "techs" is a mystery. Now back at Oct 1998 levels! NAPM data has also confounded the "analysts"! UK volume slid again though oddly trades were up! As to which way London will go since it is expecting a rate cut is anyone's guess! It could already be discounting it. Check the Nasdaq site for both after hours and Pre market trading. There is also an excellent new facility on the site. Click the link. Also the two below.

Tues The US markets were dreadful today. Program trading may have played a part, but one analyst is quoted as saying " The market seems to be focused on one thing and one thing only, and that is that the technology bubble is bursting". Thats VERY old news! Prices are now FAR too low! Still, we have the rates meeting to look forward to! That won't be enough to counter such a lousy day in America. We are likely to see a total reversal in the states tomorrow, so the UK will drop early on and rally late afternoon if past performance is a guide.

Weds The comment above went to plan, but markets remain extremely fragile. If there is a rate move in the UK things may strady. Builders seem to be strong already.

Friday (posted Thursday)

The UK rate cut was factored into the market, but the strong statement from Dell Computer wasn't! We have just added a batch of Dells here! Solid, reliable kit! The DOW has shot rather too far ahead though, so expect profit taking for at least part of the session Friday. (The UK should have a strong catch-up run, which should be across the board this time.) Oops! Forgot about the "year end" factor here! The US profit taking (even on such a short term) has occurred.

Tuesday

Initial reaction to the news above, and probably to the Middle East too was predictable, but someone said a few days back,"look for a day when bad news fails to move the market". Does that refer to the day's close? If so, we may just have seen that today. Er one thought though, MAY is approaching!

US markets have put two solid days together. London is reacting with suspicion though. This is, perhaps justified. There is plenty of scope Stateside for profit taking and sideways transfer of cash into stocks which have so far lagged. Mixed news reports today, but there is a positive bias.

Cammell Laird page

So many of the DTI and regulator inspired "fixes" have been short term or even invisible! They "regulated" utility prices down (for a while). They induced "competition" and exported jobs as a result. Pushed for speed over safety.

They allow EU rivals to be apparently subsidised unfairly, yet ignore or procrastinate over helping our industry. Why build trawlers elsewhere to ADD to an already over large Iberian fleet, yet CUT our fleet?

May

US markets have had a steady day, with some profit taking. There are also thoughts of a further 0.5% rate cut on May 15th. In the UK Special situations will be the order of trading, again with profit taking. That could show volatility in individual stocks on quite low volume.
Re Motorola and other mobile-maker cuts. These stem from three factors, a) the saturation of the market with the darned things.
b) The failure of g2 (WAP) to take off at all.
c) UK industrial cost rise, real and feared.

The hiatus before g3 actually works has left the manufacturers with a considerable over capacity and, it seems no other product to turn to instead. UK government intervention is, perhaps unwise unless other products are found. Uk costs are critical when a company has facilities elsewhere too!

This Page Set up March 25th. 2001 Edits see last entry.

This section is mainly the Market comments made at the times stated
Thursday Mar. 22nd. 2001 at 23.00. Revision Mar. 23rd. 0800	This is the time when a bounce could begin. Prices have been driven well down by slowdown worries, but bear in mind that the "Dow" index is 30 shares only, so is prone to shifts by one constituent. The FTSE has followed the US yet again. I note that Hemscott Analyst is very negative on Nasdaq and US markets in general. As to whether the "Sell in May" concept will apply this year, that would really put the icing on the cake! The zero rate in Tokyo may be the catalyst to revive the economy there. The Nikkei had a very good day Wednesday. The slide there on Thursday was about 33% of the gain and the Dow has bounced some 250 points off the days low point. The S & P composite at 1117.58 is off a mere 4.56 points and Nasdaq is UP 67.57. The Nikkei has retraced the loss it made on Thursday.
Date as above	US slowdown worries are the major factors, but rates could be cut this week by at least 0.25%. That was my comment on the 19th. It seems that 0.5% is seen as too little!
Sunday Mar. 25th. 2001 at 16.00.	I note that Hemscott Analyst is very negative on Nasdaq and US markets in general. As to whether the "Sell in May" concept will apply this year, that would really put the icing on the cake! Trading on Friday in the UK was at lower volumes and there was some late price drift lower. Minor stocks showed no sign of revival. The negative factors are still in place, with Foot & Mouth a very significant factor in the UK for several market sectors. The BT sale could boost that stock. If the Pacific Rim markets can hold onto the rise made on Friday, I suspect the UK will follow, at least until the pre market data emerges from the US. There has been a major failure in Japan though which will weigh heavily on the Nikkei.
Pacific Media entry	Currently (Feb 19th.) the shares are rising on high volume. The last shares in TVM have now been cleared, so there is soon to be no overhang. Pacific Media Plc, the Asian focused integrated media and e-commerce group which has been traded on AIM since October 1995, is now a fully Listed company. Not sure that they are in the correct UK category though! Pacific Media now owns 36% of the Chinese Channel and the remaining 64% is owned by Television Broadcasts Limited, the world's largest producer of Chinese language programming. Company investments are now listed in a sub-page.All have site links. Would someone please tell the Daily Mail that PCM is NOT just a cinema company!!! Are you out there Geoff Foster?
Monday Mar. 26th. 2001 at 23.00. Updated Tuesday at 08.00	I note the Pacific Rim markets held onto the rise made on Friday and moved solidly ahead. The UK followed, and consolidated as the pre market data emerged from the US. The failure in Japan had little effect. The Dow has closed 182.75 to the good. UK share volume was a little lower than on Friday. Smaller stocks have also begun to move ahead today. Blacks Leisure may be about to go private. Watch the telco stocks for further rises, followed by profit taking as the week goes on. Singapore could be strong overnight. Profit-taking in Pacific rim markets followed the reversal in the Nasdaq of 10.19 points. UK profit warnings related to foot and mouth begin with Old English Pubs today.
Tuesday Mar. 27th. 2001 at 23.00.	Profit-taking in Pacific rim markets followed the reversal in the Nasdaq of 10.19 points. The UK followed the Dow after a hesitant start, and consolidated as the pre market data emerged from the US, to close at the best levels of the day on higher volume . US consumer confidence data showed a rise. Smaller stocks have also begun to move ahead today. Blacks Leisure may be about to go private. Watch the telco stocks for further rises, followed by profit taking as the week goes on. Mixed jobs news today in the UK as hi techs and steel lose but curry gains!
Thursday?	As suggested earlier (see archive page) we have had a bout of profit taking, exaggerated by the profit warnings from Nortel and several Foot an mouth related ones in the UK. Barratt posted 25% gains, which may be paralleled in the other housebuilders. Disney job losses are not good news, since it covers Europe and the States. I see G W has made some moves too. That may counter the other gloom. Yet again the Middle East is a factor, with the spiral of death STILL unbroken. Both Dow and Nasdaq appear to have closed off worst levels. Check the Nasdaq site for both after hours and Pre market trading. There is also an excellent new facility on the site. Click the link.
Friday	As suggested earlier (see archive page) we had a bout of profit taking, The Dow closed up a fraction and Nasdaq has closed just off worst levels. The Pacific rim markets have been much steadier, suggesting a firmer day ahead in London. The Maxwell report could cause some reaction though.
Monday 2nd.	The US markets were ahead, but collapsed big time! American Express clearly was the main factor. Why Nasdaq is so neurotic since it covers a wide range of "techs" is a mystery. Now back at Oct 1998 levels! NAPM data has also confounded the "analysts"! UK volume slid again though oddly trades were up! As to which way London will go since it is expecting a rate cut is anyone's guess! It could already be discounting it. Check the Nasdaq site for both after hours and Pre market trading. There is also an excellent new facility on the site. Click the link. Also the two below.
	Tues The US markets were dreadful today. Program trading may have played a part, but one analyst is quoted as saying " The market seems to be focused on one thing and one thing only, and that is that the technology bubble is bursting". Thats VERY old news! Prices are now FAR too low! Still, we have the rates meeting to look forward to! That won't be enough to counter such a lousy day in America. We are likely to see a total reversal in the states tomorrow, so the UK will drop early on and rally late afternoon if past performance is a guide. Weds The comment above went to plan, but markets remain extremely fragile. If there is a rate move in the UK things may strady. Builders seem to be strong already.
Friday (posted Thursday)	The UK rate cut was factored into the market, but the strong statement from Dell Computer wasn't! We have just added a batch of Dells here! Solid, reliable kit! The DOW has shot rather too far ahead though, so expect profit taking for at least part of the session Friday. (The UK should have a strong catch-up run, which should be across the board this time.) Oops! Forgot about the "year end" factor here! The US profit taking (even on such a short term) has occurred.
Tuesday	Initial reaction to the news above, and probably to the Middle East too was predictable, but someone said a few days back,"look for a day when bad news fails to move the market". Does that refer to the day's close? If so, we may just have seen that today. Er one thought though, MAY is approaching!
	US markets have put two solid days together. London is reacting with suspicion though. This is, perhaps justified. There is plenty of scope Stateside for profit taking and sideways transfer of cash into stocks which have so far lagged. Mixed news reports today, but there is a positive bias.
Cammell Laird page	So many of the DTI and regulator inspired "fixes" have been short term or even invisible! They "regulated" utility prices down (for a while). They induced "competition" and exported jobs as a result. Pushed for speed over safety. They allow EU rivals to be apparently subsidised unfairly, yet ignore or procrastinate over helping our industry. Why build trawlers elsewhere to ADD to an already over large Iberian fleet, yet CUT our fleet?
May	US markets have had a steady day, with some profit taking. There are also thoughts of a further 0.5% rate cut on May 15th. In the UK Special situations will be the order of trading, again with profit taking. That could show volatility in individual stocks on quite low volume. Re Motorola and other mobile-maker cuts. These stem from three factors, a) the saturation of the market with the darned things. b) The failure of g2 (WAP) to take off at all. c) UK industrial cost rise, real and feared. The hiatus before g3 actually works has left the manufacturers with a considerable over capacity and, it seems no other product to turn to instead. UK government intervention is, perhaps unwise unless other products are found. Uk costs are critical when a company has facilities elsewhere too!